18 March 2016

I'm not gloating. Honest


Did you see the story today about the Carnegie Mellon University study that compared current presidential candidates' language and grammar in texts of campaign speeches? Trump's vocabulary matches that of children ages 11 and under and his grammar children ages 13-14. They threw in Obama, G.W. Bush, Clinton, Reagan, and Lincoln for balance. Highest overall: Lincoln. Trump came in next to last, ahead of Bush.

 I finally finished reading Steven Pinker's 1,009-page "Better Angels of Our Nature." He wrote:

"There’s no such thing as the IQ of a speech, but Philip Tetlock and other political psychologists have identified a variable called integrative complexity that captures a sense of intellectual balance, nuance, and sophistication. A passage that is low in integrative complexity stakes out an opinion and relentlessly hammers it home, without nuance or qualification. Its minimal complexity can be quantified by counting words like absolutely, always, certainly, definitively, entirely, forever, indisputable, irrefutable, undoubtedly, and unquestionably.

"A passage gets credit for some degree of integrative complexity if it shows a touch of subtlety with words like usually, almost, but, however, and maybe. It is rated higher if it acknowledges two points of view, higher still if it discusses connections, tradeoffs, or compromises between them, and highest of all if it explains these relationships by reference to a higher principle or system. The integrative complexity of a passage is not the same as the intelligence of the person who wrote it, but the two are correlated especially, according to [psychologist Dean] Simonton, among American presidents.

"Integrative complexity is related to violence. People whose language is less integratively complex, on average, are more likely to react to frustration with violence and are more likely to go to war in war games.

"Working with the psychologist Peter Suedfeld, Tetlock tracked the integrative complexity of the speeches of national leaders in a number of political crises of the 20th century that ended peacefully (such as the Berlin blockade in 1948 and the Cuban Missile Crisis) or in war (such as World War I and the Korean War), and found that when the complexity of the leaders’ speeches declined, war followed.

"In particular, they found a linkage between rhetorical simple-mindedness and military confrontations in speeches by Arabs and Israelis, and by the Americans and Soviets during the Cold War."

I'd still vote for Trump over Cruz: better away-from-home violence than at-home coerced Christianity.

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